Congress closes in on final 2024 budget
Congress closes in on final 2024 budget
The odyssey that was the 2024 budget negotiations finally appeared to reach its conclusion on Friday. The six-bill, $1.2 trillion minibus package was released in the early hours of Thursday morning. The House passed the package on Friday by a vote 286-134, with 112 Republicans voting against the measure. The Senate is expected to pass the bill and President Joe Biden indicated he would sign off on it immediately once it reached his desk. Entering the week, funding for the Department of Homeland Security was the final holdup preventing the budget from moving forward. While another continuing resolution seemed likely at first, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) was able to negotiate a full bill which both sides were satisfied with. Democrats got 12,000 Special Immigrant Visas for Afghans approved and Republicans got a provision to increase the number of ICE detention beds and border patrol agents. It has been a challenging first five months for Rep. Mike Johnson’s speakership, but he is close to getting the budget over the finish line and avoiding a shutdown. Speaker Johnson indicates the House will now turn its attention to foreign aid. He is doing all this with bipartisan support, which is probably how the majority of Americans want the House of Representatives to work.
TikTok legislation stalls in the Senate
Legislation that would force Chinese parent company Byte Dance to sell TikTok in six months or be banned from U.S. app stores passed the House with flying colors last week, receiving widespread bipartisan support. But as the bill moved to the Senate, momentum ground to a halt. Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner (D-VA) has supported the legislation, but there is no clear consensus among key senate leadership. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) still has not revealed whether he will bring the bill to a vote. Senate Commerce Committee Chair Maria Cantwell (D-WA) did not want to move on the legislation until they better understood potential unintended consequences and instead suggested holding a hearing. Without a consensus, the bill could fizzle out. This development is not necessarily surprising, but it is a stark contrast to how things looked just last week.
Bipartisan Tax Bill facing major issues
The Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024, negotiated by Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO) and Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR), passed the House with bipartisan support on January 31. As the bill continues to linger in the Senate, though, the chances of it making it out appear to be slipping. Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID), the ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, has told GOP colleagues he does not want to pass a tax bill. Sens. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Mitt Romney (R-UT) have also backed Sen. Crapo’s stance. Sens. Wyden and Crapo have attempted to negotiate through the disagreements in the legislation, particularly around the expansion of the child tax credit. But to this point, no progress has been made. Sen. Schumer did put the bill on the Senate’s legislative calendar this week. Supporters of the legislation are hoping Sen. Schumer brings the bill to the floor when the Senate reconvenes in April.
This Week’s Takeaways
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) filed a resolution to oust Rep. Johnson from the speakership on Friday morning. The move came after Rep. Green accused the Speaker of conceding too much to President Biden and Democrats in the budget negotiations. It is a similar tactic that Republicans used to remove former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) from his leadership role in October. While the motion may not go anywhere, it presents a lot of intrigue should it move forward. The GOP currently has a one-vote majority, meaning Speaker Johnson could only stand to lose two votes to remain in power. Moderate Democrats could also vote to table the motion if the Speaker provides a vote on the Senate-passed Foreign Aid package. While Speaker Johnson was able to get the budget passed, his status as Speaker could be up in the air when the House returns from its two-week recess.
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates at this time. However, he indicated that they were expecting to cut interest rates later in the year if their current projections around inflation continue to hold. "I don't think we really know if this is a bump on the road or something more," said Chair Powell. "We'll have to find out. In the meantime, the economy is strong. The labor market is strong. Inflation has come way down. And that gives us the ability to approach this question carefully."
The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee held a hearing on “PFAS as Hazardous Substances” this week. The hearing focused on rising concerns about PFAS chemicals and what the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can do to mitigate risk and hold polluters liable. Much of the discussion centered around the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) and the EPA’s proposed rule to designate two PFAS, PFOA and PFOS, as hazardous. Some panelists supported the EPA’s legislation which would close loopholes and increase transparency around PFAS contamination. Stakeholders representing the landfill and water utility industries were concerned that these rules still left them liable for litigation and wanted to be granted exemptions. Potential congressional action around PFAS will continue to be a topic to monitor on the hill.
Congress begins its two-week Easter recess and will return to session on April 8.
The Ellis Insight
PRESIDENT
March 19 Primaries: Last Tuesday’s primaries again produced typical results. Both President Biden and Donald Trump easily won nomination elections in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, and Ohio. The familiar turnout pattern also continued in these places. The respective GOP primary in all but Illinois again drew thousands more voters than their Democratic counterpart.
In all, 26 states have held presidential primaries or caucuses to date. Yet in only the Democratic strongholds of California, Illinois, Massachusetts, and Washington did more people choose to vote in the Democratic primary. The list of states with more Republican primary voters includes eleven where President Biden won in 2020: Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Hawaii, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Virginia, all of which is a warning to the Biden campaign.
SENATE
Arizona: Emerson College released a new two-way poll of the Arizona Senate race, their first since Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) announced she would not seek re-election. The survey (3/12-15; 1,000 AZ registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects the new Arizona Senate race dropping to within the polling margin of error between Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) and 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake. The ballot test finds Mr. Gallego holding a 44-40% lead, which is approaching the toss-up realm.
Within the same polling sample, former President Donald Trump leads President Biden, 48-44%, which is bad news obviously for Mr. Biden, but also for Ms. Lake. With the data showing Mr. Trump leading the Republican ticket in the Grand Canyon State, her standing against Rep. Gallego trails the former President’s benchmark by a full eight percentage points.
Rep. Gallego has an edge among the youngest and the oldest respondents in the sample. He is also rather surprisingly favored, 43-38%, among those who said the economy is their top issue. Ms. Lake is favored by a whopping 77-12% margin among those who are most concerned about the southern border.
Maryland: The University of Maryland partnering with the Washington Post released a new survey of the Maryland Senate race (3/5-12; 1,004 MD registered voters; live interview & text) that shows former Republican Governor Larry Hogan building a strong lead in this most Democratic of states. According to the ballot test Mr. Hogan leads US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) 47-39%, while his lead would expand to 50-36% if Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) were his general election opponent.
Mr. Hogan also enjoys an extremely positive 64:23% favorability index, while Rep. Trone scores 33:21% favorable to unfavorable, and Ms. Alsobrooks records a 26:15% ratio.
Despite Mr. Trone so far outspending Ms. Alsobrooks by a 12:1 ratio ($24 million to $2 million), he leads the Democratic primary ballot test only 34-27% according to this survey. Considering the lopsided spending amount, the ballot test suggests that Rep. Trone is at least slightly underperforming as a statewide candidate.
Nevada: Prolific pollster Emerson College also tested the Nevada electorate and finds the Senate race already becoming a dead heat. The survey results (3/12-15; 1,000 NV likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) see Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leading Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R) by a slight 41-39% split, well within the polling margin of error. In the presidential race, former President Trump slips past President Biden 44-41% - a pattern that has been evident for weeks in the Silver State.
Possibly the most encouraging news for Republicans, which helps explain the GOP presidential performance in the poll, is the fact that Hispanics, traditionally heavily Democratic voters, would break for Biden in only a 44-39% clip. Hispanics account for just over 30% of the Nevada population according to U.S. Census figures. Therefore, this group could become a deciding factor in how the state eventually votes.
New Jersey: While indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) has already announced he will not seek re-election as a Democrat this year, the door is apparently open for him to file as an Independent. He would have until June 4 to present 1,000 valid New Jersey voter petition signatures to obtain a ballot position.
Though his chances of winning the 2024 general election as an Independent are virtually nil, maintaining candidate status would allow him to use his still substantial campaign funds to pay his legal expenses. At the end of 2023, Sen. Menendez reports having just under $6.1 million cash-on-hand in his campaign account.
Ohio: Chalk up a big mistake for the polling community, as the very tight Republican Senate contest that all involved pollsters predicted proved to be a landslide for businessman Bernie Moreno. The victor will now move into the long general election cycle against three-term Senator Sherrod Brown (D).
With almost the entire state reporting at this writing, Mr. Moreno would have been nominated even if Ohio were a runoff state. He captured majority support with 50.6%. State Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), who several polls had projected to be leading the race, finished a distant second with 32.8%. Secretary of State Frank LaRose, the field’s only statewide official who was perceived to be falling off the pace as the election drew near, lagged in third position recording just 16.6% support.
The result is another big win for former President Trump who, along with Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), had endorsed Mr. Moreno. The victory margin was so complete that Mr. Moreno carried all of the state’s 88 counties. Turnout was heavily Republican. Though he was in a three-way race in the Republican primary and Sen. Brown was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, Mr. Moreno still received more votes last night than the Democratic incumbent.
Wisconsin: Perhaps the most surprising recent poll comes from the Badger State of Wisconsin where Emerson College already sees the Senate race in much closer terms than most would have surmised. With Republicans only recently witnessing businessman Eric Hovde come to the forefront to declare his candidacy, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) had, for most of the election cycle, been forecast as close to being a sure winner.
The new Emerson poll (3/14-18; 1,000 WI likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Sen. Baldwin as holding only a 45-42% margin, this while ex-President Trump posts a consistent three point lead over President Biden whether on a direct head-to-head question or when most of the projected independent and minor party candidates are added to the questionnaire.
At this point, the Wisconsin Senate race has been regarded as a second tier challenge opportunity for the GOP. If poll results like this become consistent over the course of time, the race could move into the top tier and attract greater resources. The Wisconsin electorate has been known for routinely producing close election outcomes.
HOUSE
CA-16: While the California vote totals are still not complete from the March 5 Super Tuesday primary, the battle for second qualifying position in the open 16th Congressional District continues to get tighter and tighter. The latest vote iteration, with an estimated 400+ votes remaining to count, is literally down to a three vote margin.
State Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) now leads San Mateo County Supervisor and former state Senator Joe Simitian (D), 30,216 to 30,213. It is obvious we will see a recount when all the votes are finally tabulated. The Secretary of State has 22 more days to certify the election, and it is likely the tabulation process for this race will consume every bit of the allowable time. Former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) has already clinched the first general election position. Incumbent Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) is retiring.
CA-20: Tuesday night’s CA-20 special election, held as the first step in replacing House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R), unfolded as a virtual carbon copy of the original March 5 regular primary. Like in that election, it appears that Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield), who is well over 40% support in early returns, will advance into the special general election scheduled for May 21.
Just like in the coming November regular general election, he will face fellow Republican and Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux in the special general.
The special general winner will immediately take the seat and serve the balance of the current term. Regardless of the outcome in May, Messrs. Fong and Bourdeaux will face each other again on November 5.
CA-45: Another race is also uncalled. Forty-fifth District Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) has easily clinched the first qualifying position with just under 55% of the aggregate jungle primary vote. Attorney Derek Tran (D) has run in second place during the entire counting period, but he now leads Garden Grove Councilwoman Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D) by only a 327 vote margin and the end result is now in doubt. An estimated 2,500 ballots remain to be counted.
IL-7: Rep. Danny Davis (D-Chicago), who faced four challengers, managed to break the majority threshold with a 53% total. Because the opposition vote was evenly spread among his challengers, his closest competitor garnered just under 22%. Reps. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago) and Bill Foster (D-Naperville) also faced credible opposition, but both won easily.
IL-12 and 17: It took well into a second day of counting, but Rep. Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro) successfully won renomination in his southern Illinois congressional district. His opponent, 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey, conceded defeat but said his campaign “made a statement.”
The current unofficial tally shows Rep. Bost capturing 51.4% of the vote as compared to Mr. Bailey’s 48.6%, translating to a vote spread of 2,590 from a turnout of over 94,000 individuals. A smattering of ballots will soon be added to the final tally. The district featured wide swings, as both candidates typically won their respective counties by landslide proportions. Both men won 17 of the district’s 34 counties.
In the Quad Cities region, retired Circuit Judge Joe McGraw (R) will now challenge freshman Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) in what should be a competitive District 17 general election.
OH-2: A highly competitive battle in the open 2nd District from which Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Hillsboro) is retiring yielded another close result. Three self-funding businessmen led the crowded field, and concrete company owner David Taylor defeated entrepreneurs Tim O’Hara and Larry Kidd by a 25-22-19% split. Mr. Taylor’s victory last night virtually assures him of winning the seat in November in what is Ohio’s safest Republican seat.
OH-6: The top House primary attraction was the special primary for the vacant 6th Congressional District where state Sen. Michael Rulli (R-Salem) and state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus (R-Delaware) battled to replace resigned Rep. Bill Johnson (R). Since this is a partisan special election, the winner advances to a June 11th general election. The result was close most of the evening, but Sen. Rulli pulled away in the final count to score a 49-41% win.
OH-9: The other major primary occurred in the Toledo anchored 9th District where Republican state Rep. Derek Merrin (R-Monclova) and former state Rep. Craig Reidel battled for the nomination after 2022 nominee J.R. Majewski dropped out of the race. The race went Mr. Merrin’s way with a 52-34% victory margin. The state Representative now faces 21-term incumbent Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) in the general election in what should be a highly competitive election in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+6.
OH-13: In the Akron based 13th CD, former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin (R) easily defeated local City Councilman Chris Banweg. Mr. Coughlin will now challenge freshman Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) in another competitive Ohio general election campaign.
PA-12: A competitive Democratic primary is underway in the Pittsburgh area as freshman Rep. Summer Lee (D-Swissvale/Pittsburgh) defends her heavily Democratic district for the first time. Edgewood Borough Councilwoman Bhavini Patel is her principal opponent for the April 24 primary. The Moderate PAC is involving itself in the race, running attack ads against Rep. Lee referring to her as a socialist and one who is out of the Democratic Party’s mainstream. This will be one of the key national primary campaigns to watch.